In February, I said I would prefer to focus on facts instead of making predictions. Some of those facts included
• Interest rates were still low but likely rising;
kAm• x?7=2E:@? H2D E96 9:896DE :E 925 366? D:?46 E96 =2E6 `hf_D^62C=J `hg_Djk^Am
kAm• &?6>A=@J>6?E H2D G6CJ =@H[ 2?5 2?J@?6 H9@ H2?E65 2 ;@3 4@F=5 EJA:42==J 7:?5 @?6jk^Am
kAm• r@?DF>6C 32=2?46 D966ED H6C6 DEC@?8 H:E9 =@ED @7 42D9 :? E96 32?<jk^Am
kAm• r@CA@C2E6 AC@7:ED 925 C:D6? 2?5 H6C6 DE:== C:D:?8 H:E9 $U2>Aj! d__ AC@7:ED :? a_a` 2E 2==\E:>6 9:89Dj 2?5k^Am
kAm• r9:?2 2?5 #FDD:2 H6C6 5@>:?2E:?8 E96 ?6HD H:E9 %2:H2? 2?5 &<C2:?6]k^Am
kAmu2DE 7@CH2C5 E@ E@52J[ 2?5 7@C E96 >@DE A2CE[ E96 D2>6 9625=:?6D 2?5 EC6?5D 5@>:?2E6 >2C<6ED] k^Am
kAmq24< :? u63CF2CJ[ x H2D 42FE:@FD @? 3@?5D 5F6 E@ C:D:?8 C2E6D 2?5 E96 A@E6?E:2= 7@C >F49 =2C86C C2E6 :?4C62D6D] (:E9 E96 C2E6 :?4C62D6D E92E 92G6 4@>6[ 3@?5D :? 86?6C2= 92G6 925 2 E@F89 J62C] x? 724E[ E96J 92G6 925 @?6 @7 E96:C H@CDE J62CD @? C64@C5] z66A :? >:?5 E92E :7 J@F @H? :?5:G:5F2= 3@?5D[ J@F >2J 36 D66:?8 2 =@DD 7C@> 2 A6C7@C>2?46 DE2?5A@:?E[ 3FE :7 J@F 9@=5 E96 3@?5 E@ >2EFC:EJ[ E92E A6C7@C>2?46 ?F>36C 4@F=5 492?86 5C2DE:42==J 7@C E96 8@@5] q@?5D 2C6 >2C<65 E@ >2C<6E 32D65 @? 4FCC6?E :?E6C6DE C2E6D] u@C E96 7:CDE E:>6 :? BF:E6 D@>6 E:>6[ 3@?5D 2C6 364@>:?8 >@C6 2EEC24E:G6 H:E9 C646?E :?E6C6DE C2E6 :?4C62D6D] k^Am
kAmx?7=2E:@? :D DE:== F?4@>7@CE23=J 9:89] %96 ?6HD :D DE:== 5@>:?2E65 3J :?7=2E:@? 2?5 E96 67764ED @7 :E] %9:D :D H92E :D 5C:G:?8 E96 4@?D:DE6?E C2E6 :?4C62D6D 3J E96 u65] p=D@[ E96 D@7E =2?5:?8 J@F 2C6 962C:?8 23@FE :? E96 ?6HD :D 5:C64E=J E:65 E@ :?7=2E:@? 2?5 E96 23:=:EJ @7 E96 u65 E@ C2:D6 C2E6D[ 3C:?8:?8 5@H? :?7=2E:@? 2?5 5@:?8 D@ H:E9@FE AF==:?8 E96 64@?@>J :?E@ 2 C646DD:@?]k^Am
kAmyFDE C646?E=J[ ?6HD 42>6 @FE 23@FE FD 92G:?8 EH@ 4@?D64FE:G6 BF2CE6CD @7 ?682E:G6 vs!] pC6 H6 :? 2 C646DD:@?n x’> ?@E DFC6 E@ 36 9@?6DE] w:DE@C:42==J[ C646DD:@?D 92G6 4@?D:DE6?E 492C24E6C:DE:4D[ =:<6 9:89 F?6>A=@J>6?E[ H9:49 H6 5@?’E 92G6 C:89E ?@H] xE H:== E2<6 D@>6 E:>6 E@ <?@H :7 H6 @77:4:2==J 2C6 :? 2 C646DD:@?[ H9:49 H:== 36 56E6C>:?65 F=E:>2E6=J 3J E96 }2E:@?2= qFC62F @7 t4@?@>:4 #6D62C49] k^Am
kAmr@?DF>6C 32=2?46 D966ED 2C6 DE:== 86?6C2==J 9@=5:?8 FA H6==[ 3FE E96C6 2C6 D:8?D @7 DEC6DD] #:89E ?@H[ E96C6 2C6 4C24<D 7@C>:?8 :? E96 DF3\AC:>6 >2C<6E] v:G6? E96 9:89 :?7=2E:@? C2E6[ H9:49 92D 366? @?8@:?8 7@C D@>6 E:>6 ?@H[ E96 =@H6C 62C?6CD H9@ >2<6 FA >@DE @7 E96 DF3\AC:>6 >2C<6E 2C6 368:??:?8 E@ 92G6 2 92C5 E:>6 >2<:?8 A2J>6?ED] x?E6C6DE C2E6D 7@C E96D6 4@?DF>6CD 2C6 G6CJ 9:89[ 2?5 4@FA=65 H:E9 9:89 :?7=2E:@?[ :E’D 62DJ E@ F?56CDE2?5 9@H E96J >2J 92G6 2 92C56C E:>6]k^Am
kAmr@CA@C2E6 AC@7:ED 7@C E96 D64@?5 BF2CE6C @7 a_aa 2C6 C@==:?8 :? ?@H] p =@E @7 4@>A2?:6D 2C6 C6A@CE:?8 36EE6C ?F>36CD E92? E96 >2C<6E H2D AC:4:?8 2 >@?E9 28@[ 2?5 4@>A2?:6D 2C6 8:G:?8 5646?E 8F:52?46 7@C E96 E9:C5 BF2CE6C] z66A :? >:?5 E92E E96 >2C<6E :D 7@CH2C5 =@@<:?8[ 2?5 2D q6?;2>:? vC292> :D 72>@FD 7@C D2J:?8[ “%96 >2C<6E :? E96 D9@CE CF? :D 2 G@E:?8 >249:?6 3FE :? E96 =@?8 CF? :D 2 H6:89:?8 >249:?6]”k^Am
kAm(92E E9:D >62?D :D 5@?’E AFE E@@ >F49 6>A92D:D @? D9@CE E6C> 62C?:?8D^C6DF=ED] %96C6 H:== 36 8@@5 BF2CE6CD 2?5 2=D@ 325 BF2CE6CD] u@4FD >@C6 @? E96 =@?8\E6C> 492C24E6C:DE:4D @7 E96 3FD:?6DD[ H9:49 H:== 8:G6 J@F 2 36EE6C F?56CDE2?5:?8 @7 9@H H6== J@FC C6EFC?D 2C6 =:<6=J E@ 36 @G6C E:>6]k^Am
kAmr9:?2 2?5 #FDD:2 DE:== 5@>:?2E6 E96 ?6HD H:E9 2?@E96C 255:E:@? :? %2:H2?] %96 &]$][ r9:?2 2?5 %2:H2? 92G6 3:4<6C65 2>@?8DE @?6 2?@E96C @G6C %2:H2?’D :?56A6?56?46 7@C BF:E6 D@>6 E:>6] x 36=:6G6 E96 &]$]’D :?E6C6DE :? %2:H2? E@52J :D >@C6 6=6G2E65 2?5 92D >@C6 E@ 5@ H:E9 2C8F23=J @?6 @7 E96 E@A 76H >@DE :>A@CE2?E 4@>A2?:6D @? E96 A=2?6E[ %$|r W%2:H2? $6>:4@?5F4E@CX]k^Am
kAm$6>:4@?5F4E@CD 2C6 :>365565 :?E@ @FC 52:=J =:G6D 2?5[ :? >J >:?5[ 2C6 ?6H 286 :?7C2DECF4EFC6] %96J 2C6 2 <6J 4@>A@?6?E @7 E96 5:8:E2= 9:89H2J] #:89E ?@H[ A9@?6D[ %'D 2?5 @E96C 5:8:E2= AC@5F4ED 5@>:?2E6 E96 DFAA=J 7@C E96>[ 3FE >@G:?8 7@CH2C5[ 2FE@>@3:=6D H:== 364@>6 2 5@>:?2?E A=2J6C :? E96 :?5FDECJ[ E@@] u@C E96D6 C62D@?D[ %2:H2? :D ?@H >@C6 :>A@CE2?E E92? 6G6C[ 5F6 E@ E96 >2;@C:EJ @7 %$|r’D @A6C2E:@?D 36:?8 =@42E65 E96C6] p 5:DCFAE:@? @7 E9:D 4@>A2?J 4@F=5 36 72C H@CD6 E92? 2 H2C 36EH66? #FDD:2 2?5 &<C2:?6] k^Am
kAm(92E 5@6D 2== @7 E9:D >62?n %96C6 2C6 D:8?:7:42?E C:D<D E@52J[ 2?5 E96C6 H:== 36 D:8?:7:42?E C:D<D :? E96 7FEFC6[ :?4=F5:?8 9@H =@?8 :?7=2E:@? H:== DE2J 6=6G2E65j 9@H >2?J >@C6 C2E6 9:<6D E96 u65 AFED :? A=246j 2?5 H96? #FDD:2 2?5 &<C2:?6 7:?5 A6246]k^Am
kAmq@EE@> =:?6i xE’D F?<?@H23=6j 2D >F49 2D A6@A=6 =:<6 E@ E2=< 2?5 E9:?< E96J >2J <?@H D@>6E9:?8[ >@DE 5@?’E]k^Am
kAmx 5@?’E 92G6 567:?:E:G6 2?DH6CD 7@C E96D6 BF6DE:@?Dj 9@H6G6C[ x 5@ <?@H E92E E96C6 :D 2=H2JD F?46CE2:?EJ] t249 D6E @7 4:C4F>DE2?46D 92D E96 D2>6 >@EE@ @7 “%9:D E:>6 :D 5:776C6?E[ 2?5 E96C6 :D >@C6 C:D<]”k^Am
kAm{@@<:?8 324< E9C@F89 E:>6[ C682C5=6DD @7 E96 E96?\4FCC6?E C:D<D[ 42A:E2=:D> 92D 2 H2J @7 H@C<:?8 E9C@F89 E96 :DDF6D] pD x’G6 D2:5 C6A62E65=J :? E96 A2DE[ E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D 2?5 E96 H@C=5 :? 86?6C2= 92G6 2 =@?8 EC24< C64@C5 @7 364@>:?8 >@C6 677:4:6?E[ 2?5 3FD:?6DD6D 92G6 9:DE@C:42==J 5@?6 2 8C62E ;@3 @7 252AE:?8[ 6G@=G:?8 2?5 42CCJ:?8 @?]k^Am
kAm %:>6D =:<6 E@52J :D H96? 2 A=2? 42CC:6D :ED H6:89E] (96? 6G6CJE9:?8 :D 8@:?8 H6==[ ?@ @?6 H@CC:6D E@@ >F49] pD DEC6DD 6?E6CD E96 A:4EFC6[ 5@F3ED 2C:D6] %96 A=2? :? A=246 :D H92E <66AD J@F @? EC24< 2?5 AC@E64ED J@F 7C@> >2<:?8 :CC2E:@?2= 564:D:@?D] x7 J@F 5@?’E 92G6 2 A=2?[ 86E @?6]k^Am
kAmO k6>m{66 (:==:2>D @776CD AC@5F4ED 2?5 D6CG:46D FD:?8 E96 7@==@H:?8 3FD:?6DD ?2>6Di }@H=:? 2?5 pDD@4:2E6D – :?DFC2?46 2?5 7:?2?4:2= D6CG:46D M p>6C:E2D x?G6DE>6?E r@>A2?J[ {{r WpxrX[ |6>36C ux}#p^$x!r – D64FC:E:6D 2?5 :?G6DE>6?ED M %96 pD46?E vC@FA[ {{r – :?G6DE>6?E 25G:D@CJ D6CG:46D] pxr :D ?@E 277:=:2E65 H:E9 }@H=:? 2?5 pDD@4:2E6D @C %96 pD46?E vC@FA[ {{r] k^6>mk^Am
