A strengthening El Niño could scramble America’s fall foliage calendar this year. Vermont’s classic fall color show could keep leaf peepers guessing longer than usual, the Great Lakes region may end up glowing brighter than most years and the Smoky Mountains could see a wetter fall than the forecast usually calls for. This October will probably not follow the script leaf peepers know by heart.

kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qm~462? H2E6C E9@FD2?5D @7 >:=6D 7C@> 2?J 7@C6DE :D 2=C625J 492?8:?8 E96 @55D 7@C E96 H62E96C E92E H:== D92A6 E9:D 72==[ H2C>:?8 H6== A2DE :ED FDF2= C2?86 :? E96 EC@A:42= !24:7:4] %92E <:?5 @7 492?86 5@6D?’E 2=H2JD D9@H FA :? E96 =62G6D 7:CDE] xE 42? D9@H FA :? E96 >@:DEFC6[ E96 E:>:?8 @7 E96 7:CDE 4@=5 D?2A @C E96 6IEC2 H66<D 2 9@E[ 9F>:5 DA6== =:?86CD D@>6H96C6 :E ?@C>2==J H@F=5 92G6 3C@<6? 3J ?@H]k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qm%9:D 72== 4@F=5 2CC:G6 @77 D4965F=6k^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qmt= }:ñ@[ E96 !24:7:4 ~462? D:8?2= 5C:G:?8 2== @7 E9:D[ :D ?@E ?6H @? :ED @H?[ 3FE E9:D G6CD:@? :D D92A:?8 FA E@ 36 2 86?F:?6=J =2C86 @?6] }~pp’D =2E6DE @FE=@@< AFED E96 @55D 2E k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]7@IH62E96C]4@>^H62E96C\?6HD^?@22\6=\?:?@\9:DE@C:4\DEC6?8E9\A@E6?E:2=\2F8FDE\a_aeQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQmh_Tk^2m E92E E9:D 72==’D 6G6?E C2?<D 2>@?8 E96 DEC@?86DE @? C64@C5[ H:E9 2 ehT 492?46 E96 ~4E@36C E9C@F89 s646>36C 6G6?E 6I4665D E96 DEC6?8E9 @7 AC6G:@FD t= }:ñ@D :? }~pp’D C64@C5 52E:?8 E@ `hd_]k^Am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9QmtG6? 2E E92E DEC6?8E9[ E96 C68:@?2= 67764ED 2C6?’E 8F2C2?E665] qFE 2? t= }:ñ@ E9:D DEC@?8 C2C6=J =62G6D E96 7@=:286 42=6?52C 4@>A=6E6=J F?E@F4965[ H9:49 :D 6I24E=J E96 AC@3=6> 7@C 2?J@?6 ECJ:?8 E@ 3@@< 2 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^7@@55C:?<=:76]4@>^72==\7@=:286\56DE:?2E:@?D^Qm7@=:286 EC:Ak^2m >@?E9D :? 25G2?46]k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qm}6H t?8=2?5’D 4@=@C 4@F=5 2CC:G6 :? 2 CFD9k^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qm}6H t?8=2?5 DE:== D6ED E96 42=6?52C >@DE A6@A=6 4@>A2C6 6G6CJE9:?8 6=D6 282:?DE] p H62E96C\5C:G6? >@56= E92E EC24<D E96 D62D@? C68:@? 3J C68:@? 4FCC6?E=J 92D '6C>@?E’D vC66? |@F?E2:?D EFC?:?8 36EH66? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]2FEF>?8F:56]4@>^3=@8^72==\7@=:286\7@C642DE\a_aeQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQm~4E] g\`ak^2m[ H:E9 }6H w2>AD9:C6’D (9:E6 |@F?E2:?D 23@FE 2 H66< 369:?5 2?5 4@2DE2= |2:?6 D@>6H96C6 :? 36EH66?]k^Am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qmu@C642DE6CD 6IA64E E96 7:CDE C62= 4@=5 D?2A E@ C6249 E96 }@CE962DE =2E6C E92? FDF2= E9:D J62C[ A@DD:3=J ?@E D6EE=:?8 :? F?E:= ~4E@36C] w@H6G6C[ 7@C642DE6CD 5@?’E 6IA64E 2?J @FE3C62<D E92E 5@ 2CC:G6 E@ DE:4< 2C@F?5 =@?8]k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qmp 5CJ DA6== 4@F=5 3C:89E6? vC62E {2<6D 4@=@Ck^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qm%96 vC62E {2<6D DE2E6D 2C6 =@@<:?8 2E 2 5:776C6?E <:?5 @7 J62C 6?E:C6=J] p H2C>6C\E92?\FDF2= $6AE6>36C 7@==@H65 3J DF??J 52JD 2?5 4@@=6C ?:89ED 4@F=5 96=A AC@5F46 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]244FH62E96C]4@>^6?^H62E96C\7@C642DED^72==\7@C642DE\a_ae\DF>>6C\H2C>E9\>2J\=:?86C\2D\6=\?:?@\:?E6?D:7:6D^`h`da_`Q C6=lQ?@7@==@HQm3C:89E6C 72== 4@=@Ck^2m :? A2CED @7 E96 vC62E {2<6D 2?5 |:5H6DE] xE’D 2 C2C6 42D6 H96C6 2 DEC2?86 H62E96C D6EFA H@C<D :? 2 =627 A66A6C’D 72G@C :?DE625 @7 282:?DE :E]k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qm%96 !24:7:4 }@CE9H6DE’D D=@H D62D@? 4@F=5 DA665 FAk^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qm~C68@? 2?5 (2D9:?8E@? EJA:42==J CF? E96 4@F?ECJ’D D=@H6DE[ =2E6DE 7@=:286 42=6?52C[ 9@=5:?8 4@=@C :?E@ =2E6 ~4E@36C >@DE J62CD :? A2CE 3642FD6 2 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]2FEF>?8F:56]4@>^3=@8^72==\7@=:286\7@C642DE\a_aeQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQm>:=5[ H6E 4=:>2E6k^2m <66AD E6>A6C2EFC6D >@56C2E6 6?@F89 E92E E96 4@@= ?:89ED 72G@C:?8 G:G:5 4@=@C 2CC:G6 =2E6C E92? E96J 5@ 7FCE96C 62DE] t= }:ñ@ 72G@CD k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?6HDH66<]4@>^DFA6C\6=\?:?@\a_ae\7@C642DE\AC65:4E:@?\6IA6CED\`aac`cdeQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQmH2C>6C[ 5C:6C 4@?5:E:@?Dk^2m 24C@DD E96 ?@CE96C? E:6C @7 E96 4@F?ECJ E9:D J62C[ E96 !24:7:4 }@CE9H6DE :?4=F565[ H9:49 4@F=5 D9@CE6? E92E FDF2= D=@H 7256 :7 E96 C2:? E92E ?@C>2==J 6IE6?5D E96 D62D@? 5@6D?’E D9@H FA @? D4965F=6]k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qm%96 $@FE962DE 4@F=5 D66 2 H6EE6C 72== D6EFAk^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9QmvC62E $>@<J |@F?E2:?D }2E:@?2= !2C< :D E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?AD]8@G^8CD>^=62C?^>2?286>6?E^DE2E:DE:4D]9E>Q C6=lQ?@7@==@HQm>@DE G:D:E65 ?2E:@?2= A2C<k^2m :? E96 4@F?ECJ[ 2?5 E9:D J62C’D H62E96C D6EFA 4@F=5 3C:?8 2 H6EE6C 72== 24C@DD E96 $@FE962DE] %96 A2C<’D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^H62E96C]4@>^EC2G6=^?6HD^a_ad\_h\_b\8C62E\D>@<J\>@F?E2:?D\72==\4@=@C\D62D@?Q C6=lQ?@7@==@HQm6=6G2E:@? 5:G6CD:EJk^2m D6?5D 4@=@C 5@H? E96 >@F?E2:?D:56D :? DE286D[ DE2CE:?8 ?62C r=:?8>2?D s@>6 :? >:5\ E@ =2E6 $6AE6>36C 2?5 C6249:?8 E96 G2==6J 7=@@CD 3J =2E6 ~4E@36C @C 62C=J }@G6>36C]k^Am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qmt= }:ñ@ E6?5D E@ 72G@C k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?6HDH66<]4@>^DFA6C\6=\?:?@\a_ae\7@C642DE\AC65:4E:@?\6IA6CED\`aac`cdeQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQmH6EE6C 4@?5:E:@?Dk^2m 24C@DD A2CED @7 E96 $@FE962DE[ E9@F89 9@H >F49 @7 E92E C2:? =2?5D 5FC:?8 E96 H66<D 4@=@C :D 3F:=5:?8 C6>2:?D F?46CE2:?] r=@F5J[ C2:?J DEC6E496D 42? C65F46 E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]FD52]8@G^23@FE\FD52^?6HD^3=@8^D4:6?46\2FEF>?\4@=@CDQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQmC65 A:8>6?EDk^2m E92E >2<6 A62< 4@=@C G:G:5[ 3FE E96 C6=2E:@?D9:A 36EH66? C2:? 2?5 2 5:D2AA@:?E:?8 D62D@? :D >@C6 4@>A=:42E65 E92? :E =@@<D]k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qmu@=:286 7@C642DE:?8 <66AD 86EE:?8 D92CA6Ck^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qmu@=:286 7@C642DE:?8 FD65 E@ =62? 962G:=J @? A6CD@?2= >6>@CJ 2?5 2 8@@5 8F6DD 2E C6A62E:?8 =2DE J62C’D H62E96C] %92E 92D 492?865 BF:4<=J[ H:E9 ?6H6C 7@=:286 >@56=D 4@>3:?:?8 H62E96C 2?5 A96?@=@8J 52E2 E@ AC@5F46 :?4C62D:?8=J DA64:7:4 C68:@?2= 6DE:>2E6D] %96 pFEF>? vF:56 >@56=’D @H? E6DE:?8 7@F?5 :ED AC65:4E:@?D =2?565 H:E9:? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]2FEF>?8F:56]4@>^3=@8^72==\7@=:286\7@C642DE\a_aeQ C6=lQ?@7@==@HQm7:G6 52JDk^2m @7 A62< 4@=@C @? 2G6C286[ E9@F89 E96D6 C6>2:? 7@C642DED C2E96C E92? AC64:D6 52E6D]k^Am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qm%96 >@56= :D 6IA64E65 E@ D92CA6? E96D6 C68:@?2= H:?5@HD 282:? :? E96 4@>:?8 H66<D 2D C62=\E:>6 H62E96C 52E2 C6A=246D E9:D DF>>6C’D 9:DE@C:42= 2G6C286D] %92E’D FDF2==J H96? 2 =@@D6 EH@\H66< C2?86 ?2CC@HD :?E@ D@>6E9:?8 4=@D6 E@ 2? 24EF2= 52E6] k^Am
k9a 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\9625:?8Qm(92E E9:D >62?D 7@C A=2??:?8 J@FC EC:Ak^9am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qm%96 D>2CE6DE >@G6 E9:D J62C :D EC62E:?8 2?J D:?8=6 52E6 2D 2 A=2469@=56C C2E96C E92? 2 A=2?] #68:@?2= H:?5@HD H:== <66A E:89E6?:?8 2D 72== 86ED 4=@D6C[ 2?5 E96 5:776C6?46 36EH66? 3@@<:?8 ?@H 2?5 4964<:?8 324< :? 2 76H H66<D 4@F=5 36 E96 5:776C6?46 36EH66? 2 >FE65 H66<6?5 2?5 E96 <:?5 @7 4@=@C E92E 6?5D FA :? ?6IE J62C’D C@25 EC:A A9@E@D]k^Am
kA 4=2DDlQHA\3=@4<\A2C28C2A9Qmy6??:76C p==6? :D 2 C6E:C65 4967 EFC?65 EC2G6=6C[ 4@@<3@@< 2FE9@C 2?5 ?2E:@?2==J DJ?5:42E65 ;@FC?2=:DEj D96’D 2=D@ 2 4@\7@F?56C @7 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^7@@55C:?<=:76]4@>^Qmu@@5 sC:?< {:76k^2m[ H96C6 D96 D92C6D 6IA6CE EC2G6= E:AD[ 4CF:D6 :?D:89ED 2?5 =FIFCJ 56DE:?2E:@? 8F:56D] p C64@8?:K65 4CF:D6 6IA6CE H:E9 2 566A A2DD:@? 7@C 9:89\6?5 6IA6C:6?46D 2?5 @77\E96\362E6?\A2E9 56DE:?2E:@?D[ y6??:76C 6IA=@C6D E96 H@C=5 H:E9 4FC:@D:EJ[ 56AE9 2?5 2 DE@CJE6==6C’D A6CDA64E:G6] w6C 2CE:4=6D 2C6 C68F=2C=J 762EFC65 @? E96 pDD@4:2E65 !C6DD (:C6[ %96 (2D9:?8E@? !@DE[ $62EE=6 %:>6D[ |$} 2?5 >@C6]k^Am
kAm%96 A@DE k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^7@@55C:?<=:76]4@>^72==\=627\A66A:?8\324<FA\A=2?^Qm*@FC 72== =627\A66A:?8 EC:A >:89E ?665 2 324<FA A=2? E9:D J62Ck^2m 2AA62C65 7:CDE @? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^7@@55C:?<=:76]4@>Qmu@@5 sC:?< {:76k^2m]k^Am