The United States has eased some restrictions on Russia's oil sales as it tries to stabilise global energy markets, upended by Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in the Middle East.Â
Will the US sanctions waiver deliver a major windfall for Moscow?
k9am\ $J>3@=:4 :>A@CE2?46 \k^9am
kAm%96 &$ H2:G6C 2==@HD 4@F?EC:6D E@ 3FJ #FDD:2? @:= E92E :D 4FCC6?E=J 2E D62 F?E:= pAC:= ``]k^Am
kAmv:G6? E96 D9@CE\E6C> ?2EFC6 2?5 E649?:42= =:>:E2E:@?D[ :E H:== ?@E AC@G:56 2 9F86 :>>65:2E6 H:?572== E@ #FDD:2[ E9@F89 ?@?6E96=6DD 36?67:ED |@D4@H[ zA=6C 2?2=JDE |FJF )F E@=5 pu!]Â k^Am
kAmQ%96 >62DFC6 >2:?=J 2==@HD #FDD:2? 32CC6=D 2=C625J :? EC2?D:E E@ 4@>A=6E6 G@J286D 2?5 5:D492C86[Q D96 D2:5 :? 2 ?@E6[ 42==:?8 :E 2 QH:?5\5@H?[ ?@E C6@A6?:?8]QÂ k^Am
kAmp??@F?4:?8 E96 D2?4E:@?D C6=:67[ &$ %C62DFCJ $64C6E2CJ $4@EE q6DD6?E D2:5 E96 >@G6 H@F=5 ?@E AC@G:56 QD:8?:7:42?E 7:?2?4:2= 36?67:E E@ E96 #FDD:2? 8@G6C?>6?E[ H9:49 56C:G6D E96 >2;@C:EJ @7 :ED 6?6C8J C6G6?F6 7C@> E2I6D 2DD6DD65 2E E96 A@:?E @7 6IEC24E:@?]Qk^Am
kAmzA=6C DF886DED 2C@F?5 `a_ >:==:@? 32CC6=D @7 #FDD:2? 4CF56 >2J 36 2E D62 2E E96 >@>6?E]k^Am
kAm%92E C6AC6D6?ED 2C@F?5 EH@ H66<D @7 #FDD:2VD E@E2= @:= @FEAFE]k^Am
kAmqFE |FJF )F 7C@> zA=6C D2:5 >@DE @7 E92E 925 2=C625J 366? AC6\@C56C65 3J r9:?6D6 @C x?5:2? 4=:6?ED[ =:>:E:?8 E96 :>>65:2E6 3F>A :? @C56CD]k^Am
kAm(2D9:?8E@? 925 =2DE H66< 8:G6? 2 D:>:=2C H2:G6C E@ }6H s6=9:[ H9:49 Q82G6 x?5:2? C67:?6CD 2Â 3:8 25G2?E286 E@ D?2A FA E96 42C8@[Q D96 D2:5]k^Am
kAm%96 H2:G6C >2J 42CCJ >@C6 DJ>3@=:4 E92? 7:?2?4:2= H6:89E 7@C |@D4@H]k^Am
kAmQxEVD 2 8:7E E@ #FDD:2 :? E6C>D @7 D2?4E:@?D[Q D2:5 #:492C5 |6256[ 65:E@C\:?\49:67 @7 {=@J5VD {:DE x?E6==:86?46[ 2 >2C:E:>6 52E2 4@>A2?J]k^Am
kAm|65:2 C6A@CED DF886DE65 E92E y2A2?[ %92:=2?5 2?5 E96 !9:=:AA:?6D H6C6 4@?D:56C:?8 3FJ:?8 #FDD:2? 4CF56 7@==@H:?8 E96 &$ 564:D:@?]k^Am
kAmqFE zA=6CVD |FJF )F D2:5 D@>6 4@F?EC:6D >:89E DE:== 92G6 4@?46C?D 2D E96 t& 2?5 &z D2?4E:@?D DE:== C6>2:? :? A=246]Â k^Am
kAmQxEVD ?@E 4CJDE2= 4=62C E92E 6G6CJ3@5J :D 7C66 E@ 3FJ ]]] xEVD ?@E 2D 62DJ 2D %CF>A ;FDE @A6?65 E96 E2A 2?5 E96? E96 @:= H:== ?2EFC2==J 7=@H E@ E96 C6DE @7 E96 H@C=5]Qk^Am
kAm%96 zC6>=:? H6=4@>65 E96 564:D:@? 3J FC8:?8 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D E@ 8@ 7FCE96C[ H:E9 64@?@>:4 6?G@J z:C:== s>:EC:6G D2J:?8 E96 =:7E:?8 @7 >@C6 D2?4E:@?D =@@<65 Q:?6G:E23=6Q 8:G6? E96 G@=2E:=:EJ @7 E96 8=@32= 6?6C8J >2C<6E]k^Am
kAm#FDD:2? !C6D:56?E '=25:>:C !FE:? 62C=:6C E9:D H66< @776C65 E@ DFAA=J @:= E@ tFC@A6 D9@F=5 :E C6G6CD6 @? D2?4E:@?D[ 3FE @?=J @? 2 Q=@?8\E6C>Q 32D:D 2?5 Q7C66 7C@> A@=:E:42= AC6DDFC6]Qk^Am
k9am\ %6?D @7 3:==:@?D \k^9am
kAmq6J@?5 E96 &$ H2:G6C[ E96 86?6C2= DFC86 :? @:= AC:46D D:?46 E96 DE2CE @7 E96 H2C :? E96 |:55=6 t2DE 92D 96=A65 E@ C6A=6?:D9 #FDD:2VD 4@776CD[ 56A=6E65 3J >@C6 E92? 7@FC J62CD @7 H2C 282:?DE &<C2:?6 2?5 :?E6C?2E:@?2= D2?4E:@?D]k^Am
kAm#FDD:2VD t$!~ 3=6?5[ EJA:42==J AFC492D65 3J r9:?2 2?5 x?5:2[ :D EC25:?8 Sb_\c_ 9:896C A6C 32CC6= E92? 367@C6 E96 4@?7=:4E]k^Am
kAmtG6CJ 6IEC2 S`_ A6C 32CC6= 3C:?8D 2? 255:E:@?2= S`]e 3:==:@? 2 >@?E9 :? E2I C6G6?F6D 7@C E96 #FDD:2? 8@G6C?>6?E[ $6C86J '2<F=6?<@ 7C@> r2C?68:6 t?5@H>6?E 6DE:>2E65]Â k^Am
kAmx7 Q:E C@D6 3J Sc_ 2?5 96=5 E92E =6G6= 7@C D:I >@?E9D[ E9:D H@F=5 >62? 2? 6IEC2 Sbg 3:==:@?[Q 96 D2:5 :? 2 A@DE @? %6=68C2>]k^Am
kAm%92E H@F=5 36 6?@F89 E@ 4@G6C >@DE @7 #FDD:2VD a_ad 567:4:E[ H9:49 42>6 :? 2E 2C@F?5 Sd_ 3:==:@?]k^Am
kAm#FDD:2 92D A@DE65 2 3F586E 567:4:E :? 6G6CJ J62C D:?46 :E @C56C65 EC@@AD :?E@ &<C2:?6 2?5 6IA64ED E@ 5@ D@ 282:? :? a_ae]k^Am
kAm~:=\2?5\82D C6G6?F6D \\ C@F89=J @?6\7:7E9 @7 #FDD:2VD DE2E6 :?4@>6 \\ H6C6 CF??:?8 2E 2 7:G6\J62C =@H 2E E96 DE2CE @7 E96 J62C[ 9:E 3J D2?4E:@?D[ AC@5F4E:@? :DDF6D 2?5 &<C2:?:2? 2EE24<D @? 6?6C8J 724:=:E:6D]Â k^Am
kAm%96 >62DFC6D[ 2:>65 2E H:56?:?8 DFAA=J E@ AFD9 5@H? AC:46D[ 2C6 2 Q8@5D6?5 7@C #FDD:2VD D925@H 7=66E[Q D2:5 {=@J5VD 2?2=JDE qC:586E s:2<F?[ C676CC:?8 E@ E96 @A2BF6 D2?4E:@?D\3FDE:?8 E2?<6CD FD65 3J #FDD:2] Â Â Â k^Am
kAmQ#FDD:2 42? >2<6 2 =@E @7 >@?6J 3642FD6 :EVD 8:G6? 2 A2DD[Q D96 25565 5FC:?8 2 H63:?2C]k^Am
k9am\ ~FE4CJ 7C@> &<C2:?6 2?5 tFC@A6 \k^9am
kAm&<C2:?:2? !C6D:56?E '@=@5J>JC +6=6?D<J D2:5 E96 &$ D2?4E:@?D C6=:67 Q46CE2:?=J 5@6D ?@E 96=A A6246]QÂ k^Am
kAmtFC@A6[ H9:49 92D ?@E 62D65 :ED D2?4E:@?D @? #FDD:2? @:=[ 2=D@ AFD965 324<]k^Am
kAmuC6?49 !C6D:56?E t>>2?F6= |24C@? D2:5 E92E E96 $EC2:E @7 w@C>FKVD D9FE5@H? Q:? ?@ H2JQ ;FDE:7:65 =:7E:?8 E96 D2?4E:@?D @? #FDD:2]k^Am
kAmqC:E2:? D2:5 Q2== A2CE?6CD D9@F=5 >2:?E2:? AC6DDFC6 @? #FDD:2 2?5 :ED H2C 496DEQ[ H9:=6 v6C>2? r92?46==@C uC:65C:49 |6CK D2:5 E92E Q62D:?8 D2?4E:@?D ?@H[ 7@C H92E6G6C C62D@?[ :D HC@?8]Qk^Am
kAm3FCD^C=k^Am