(COLUMBUS, OHIO) Where has more than seven months of intermittent war, economic threats, stalled diplomacy and promises of a ceasefire in Iran left the concept of U.S. strategic credibility?
It is a question that political scientists and security and foreign policy experts like us have had to grapple with at each turn of the conflict.
kAm$@>6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H2D9:?8E@?A@DE]4@>^@A:?:@?D^a_ae^_b^_`^F?:E65\DE2E6D\DEC:<6D\2EE24<\:C2?\<92>6?6:^Qm4@>>6?E2E@CD 92G6 2C8F65k^2m E92E E96 3@>3:?8D 2?5 >F=E:A=6 462D67:C6D 24EF2==J DEC6?8E96? p>6C:42? 4C65:3:=:EJ 3J 56>@?DEC2E:?8 p>6C:42? 56E6CC6?46 42A23:=:E:6D 2?5 C6D@=G6 E@H2C5 25G6CD2C:6D]k^Am
kAmk2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E969:==]4@>^@A:?:@?^:?E6C?2E:@?2=^dfecgad\E96\H@C=5\:D\H2E49:?8\2>6C:42\=@D6\:ED\>@C2=\4@>A2DD\2?5\:ED\8=@32=\4C65:3:=:EJ^Qm~E96CD 4:E6k^2m E96 =24< @7 2 A6CDF2D:G6 ;FDE:7:42E:@? 7@C 4@?7=:4E[ E96 DEC:<6D E96>D6=G6D 2?5 DF3D6BF6?E 7:ED 2?5 DE2CED @7 A6246>2<:?8 2D 6G:56?46 E92E p>6C:42’D 8=@32= :>286 92D 366? F?56C>:?65[ 2D 92D E96 A6CDF2D:G6?6DD @7 :ED AF3=:4 4=2:>D] p?5 E9:D[ :? EFC?[ 92D F?56C4FE E96 4C65:3:=:EJ @7 7FEFC6 AC@?@F?46>6?ED 3J E96 &]$] 25>:?:DEC2E:@?]k^Am
kAmt:E96C H2J[ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HD;]4@>^@A:?:@?^2>6C:42?\4C65:3:=:EJ\:D\@?\E96\=:?6\:?\:C2?\gc4`b6e2Qm>@DE @3D6CG6CD :?D:DEk^2m E92E 7@C E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D[ “4C65:3:=:EJ :D @? E96 =:?6 :? xC2?]” qFE E92E 92D =@?8 366? 2 46?EC2= 4@?46C? @7 &]$] 7@C6:8? A@=:4J] pD A@=:E:42= D4:6?E:DE $E6A96? (2=E @3D6CG65 :? a_aa[ @?6 @7 E96 >@DE AC65:4E23=6 2DA64ED @7 G:CEF2==J 2?J 5632E6 @G6C (2D9:?8E@?’D :?G@=G6>6?E @G6CD62D :D E96 “k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^7@C6:8?A@=:4J]4@>^a_aa^_`^ah^FD\4C65:3:=:EJ\F<C2:?6\CFDD:2\8C2?5\DEC2E68J^QmC:EF2= :?G@<:?8 @7 ‘4C65:3:=:EJk^2m]’”k^Am
kAmqFE H92E[ 6I24E=J[ :D “p>6C:42? 4C65:3:=:EJ”n p?5 H9J :D E96C6 2AA2C6?E=J D@ >F49 8C@FAE9:?< 23@FE E96 4@?46AE 2?5 AC24E:46nk^Am
k9am':6E?2> 2?5 E96 4C65:3:=:EJ 5:D4@FCD6k^9am
kAmu@C A@=:4J>2<6CD[ 5:A=@>2ED 2?5 D49@=2CD E96 E649?:42= 567:?:E:@? :D DEC2:89E7@CH2C5i rC65:3:=:EJ C676CD E@ E96 A6C46:G65 =:<6=:9@@5 E92E 2 4@F?ECJ H:== C6=:23=J <66AD :ED AC@>:D6D[ 42CCJ @FE :ED E9C62ED 2?5 56=:G6C @? :ED A=6586D] x? E9:D >2??6C[ 2 4@F?ECJ :D 4C65:3=6 :7 2==:6D 2?5 25G6CD2C:6D 2=:<6 H:== 36=:6G6 :E E96 ?6IE E:>6] qFE 2D DF886DE65 3J k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^5@:]@C8^`_]`_hb^@I7@C593^hfg_`hfdc`b_a]_`b]``Qm4@?E6>A@C2CJ 5632E6Dk^2m 2?5 FD286[ 4C65:3:=:EJ[ :? AC24E:46[ @7E6? >62?D D@>6E9:?8 >@C6 E92? D:>A=J <66A:?8 FA H:E9 4@>>:E>6?ED]k^Am
k7:8FC6mk:>8 2=ElQ%H@ A6@A=6 H2=< A2DE 2 >FC2= 56A:4E:?8 2 >:=:E2CJ D9:A :? 4@?7=:4E]Q DC4lQ9EEADi^^:>286D]E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^7:=6D^fed_dc^@C:8:?2=^7:=6\a_ae`__g\d_\=FA233];A8n:I=:3lC3\c]`]`U2>AjBlcdU2>Aj2FE@l7@C>2EU2>Aj7:El4=:AU2>AjHlfc_Q ^mk7:842AE:@?m!6@A=6 :? 5@H?E@H? %69C2?[ xC2?[ H2=< A2DE 2 >FC2= 56A:4E:?8 2 &]$] 2:C4C27E 42CC:6C F?56C >:DD:=6 2EE24<] k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^?6HDC@@>]2A]@C8^9@>6^D62C49nBF6CJlH2CTa_:?Ta_:C2?Ta_F]D]Ta_42CC:6CU2>Aj>65:2%JA6lA9@E@Qmp! !9@E@^'29:5 $2=6>: G:2 %96 r@?G6CD2E:@?k^2mk^7:842AE:@?mk^7:8FC6m
kAmrC65:3:=:EJ :D ?@E @?=J 23@FE H96E96C ?2E:@?D DF446DD7F==J D:8?2= C6D@=G6[ 3FE 2=D@ H96E96C C6=6G2?E 2F5:6?46D A6C46:G6 E96:C 4@>>:E>6?ED 2D 4C65:3=6] x? @E96C H@C5D[ 4@?E6>A=2E:?8 2 ?2E:@?’D 4C65:3:=:EJ :D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^=:3C2CJ]76D]56^=:32=E^;@FC?2=D^DH6ED7F==E6IE^`chedhaa]A57Qm23@FE 2DDF>AE:@?D @G6C E96 “DEC2E68:4 4F=EFC6k^2m” E92E F?56C8:C5 :E – 2?5 E9:D 42? :?4=F56 6G6CJE9:?8 7C@> 2 4@F?ECJ’D >:=:E2CJ C6D@FC46D E@ 23DEC24E ?@E:@?D 23@FE :ED G2=F6D]k^Am
kAmw:DE@C:42= 6I2>A=6D 2C6 FD67F= 96C6[ :? A2CE:4F=2C E96 ':6E?2> (2C[ 5FC:?8 H9:49 p>6C:42? 4C65:3:=:EJ H2D 2E DE2<6 :? F?AC64656?E65 H2JD]k^Am
kAm~? E96 DFC7246[ ':6E?2> A@D65 =:EE=6 :?EC:?D:4 G2=F6 E@ E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D – :E H2D ?@E 2 AC:>2CJ E962E6C @7 E96 r@=5 (2C 3J >@DE >62DFC6D] *6E A@=:4J>2<6CD C6A62E65=J :?D:DE65 E92E ':6E?2> H2D E96 A=246 H96C6 p>6C:42? 4C65:3:=:EJ 925 E@ 36 56>@?DEC2E65 2?5 6DE23=:D965] (9Jnk^Am
kAm$64C6E2CJ @7 $E2E6 y@9? u@DE6C sF==6D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^9:DE@CJ]DE2E6]8@G^9:DE@C:42=5@4F>6?ED^7CFD`hda\dcG`aA`^5`c`QmH2C?65 :? `hdck^2m E92E 4@>>F?:DE 6IA2?D:@? :? pD:2 A@D65 “2 8C2G6 E9C62E E@ E96 H9@=6 7C66 4@>>F?:EJ” 2?5 :?D:DE65 E92E 56>@?DEC2E:?8 C6D@=G6 H@F=5 AC6G6?E 8C62E6C 52?86CD =2E6C] }2E:@?2= D64FC:EJ 25G:D6C |4v6@C86 qF?5J k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^5@:]@C8^`_]`__f^hfg\b\_b`\h__eg\eQmD:>:=2C=J 2C8F65k^2m E92E E96 “:?E6C?2E:@?2= AC6DE:86 @7 E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D” H2D 566A=J :?G6DE65 :? ':6E?2>]k^Am
kAmrC65:3:=:EJ[ E@ E96>[ >62?E >@C6 E92? D:>A=J 9@?@C:?8 4@>>:E>6?ED] #2E96C[ :E H2D 3@F?5 FA H:E9 3C@256C BF6DE:@?D @7 A@H6C[ 9@?@C 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]9:DE@CJ?6HD?6EH@C<]@C8^2CE:4=6^E96\C6EFC?\@7\E96\5@>:?@\E96@CJQmp>6C:42’D A=246 :? E96 H@C=5k^2m 36EH66? 4@>A6E:?8 A@H6CD]k^Am
k9am!C6DE:86[ @C E96 =24< E96C6@7k^9am
kAmpD 5:A=@>2E:4 9:DE@C:2? #@36CE |4|29@? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH];DE@C]@C8^DE23=6^ach`a`b_Qm@3D6CG65 564256D 28@k^2m[ 4C65:3:=:EJ 92D @7E6? 366? EC62E65 2D :7 :E H6C6 2 4@?4C6E6 2?5 >62DFC23=6 4@?46AE] *6E :? AC24E:46 :E 92D 2=H2JD 42CC:65 2? :>A@CE2?E DJ>3@=:4 5:>6?D:@? – 4C65:3:=:EJ 92D 4@>6 E@ 36 2 D9@CE92?5 7@C p>6C:42? AC6DE:86 :ED6=7]k^Am
kAmp?5 E92E G2C:2?E @7 p>6C:42? 4C65:3:=:EJ 92D :? A2CE:4F=2C C6DE65 @? 2?I:6E:6D 23@FE E96 4@?E:?F65 5@>:?2?46 2?5 DFA6C:@C:EJ @7 E96 &]$]\=65 H@C=5 @C56C]k^Am
kAmsFC:?8 @?6 4@?8C6DD:@?2= 5:D4FDD:@? :? `hed[ &]$] A@=:4J>2<6CD H2C?65 E92E H:E95C2H:?8 7C@> ':6E?2> H@F=5 >62? DFCC6?56C:?8 “2== pD:2 E@ r@>>F?:DED[” AC@>AE:?8 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^9@>6]F?48]65F^Tft;H;@?6D^H@C=5^C625:?8D^{qy]A57QmE96 C67=64E:@?k^2mi “x7 2 ?2E:@? H:E9 `c >:==:@? 42? >2<6 &?4=6 $2> CF?[ H92E H:== r9:?2 E9:?<n”k^Am
kAmp? 6I492?86 36EH66? !C6D:56?E {J?5@? y@9?D@? 2?5 &?56CD64C6E2CJ @7 $E2E6 v6@C86 q2== :? `hed :D 6G6? >@C6 :==FDEC2E:G6] !C6D:56?E y@9?D@? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^9:DE@CJ]DE2E6]8@G^9:DE@C:42=5@4F>6?ED^7CFD`hec\egG_b^5f`QmH@CC:65 E92E 232?5@?:?8k^2m ':6E?2> H@F=5 >2<6 “2== E96D6 4@F?EC:6D D2J E92E &?4=6 $2> H2D 2 A2A6C E:86C” 2?5 H@?56C65 H96E96C p>6C:42 H@F=5 =@D6 E96 4C65:3:=:EJ 3F:=E 3J E9C66 AC6D:56?ED] q2==’D C6DA@?D6 H2D[ “}@ D:C] %96 H@CDE 3=@H H@F=5 36 E92E E96 >:89E:6DE A@H6C @? 62CE9 :D F?23=6 E@ 56762E 2 92?57F= @7 8F6CC:==2D]”k^Am
kAm%96 2?I:6EJ H2D ?@E E92E p>6C:42 >:89E 72:= E@ <66A FA H:E9 :ED H@C5[ 3FE E92E E96 =6256C @7 E96 “7C66 H@C=5” >:89E 72:= E@ 56762E 2 ?@?\(6DE6C?[ E649?@=@8:42==J :?76C:@C @AA@?6?E]k^Am
kAm%96 4C65:3:=:EJ 2E DE2<6 H2D 3@E9 p>6C:42’D D6?D6 @7 ?2E:@?2= D6=7 2?5 E96 A6C46:G65 DFA6C:@C:EJ @7 2 (6DE6C?\=65 H@C=5 @C56C]k^Am
kAmr@F?E6C:?EF:E:G6=J[ H9:=6 E96 ':6E?2> (2C H2D 7@F89E :? E96 6J6D @7 >2?J A@=:4J>2<6CD E@ 5676?5 &]$] 4C65:3:=:EJ[ :ED 4@?4=FD:@? D92EE6C65 4@?G6?E:@?2= ?@E:@?D @7 4C65:3:=:EJ] xE 42==65 :?E@ BF6DE:@? E96 &]$]’D A=246 :? E96 H@C=5 :? 2? 6C2 9:DE@C:2?D 92G6 E6C>65 2? “k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]9FA]92CG2C5]65F^3@@<D^hfg_efc_ecbeaQmp86 @7 uC24EFC6k^2m[” 492C24E6C:K65 3J 64@?@>:4 492==6?86D DF49 2D DE287=2E:@?[ @:= D9@4<D 2?5 C:D:?8 5:DECFDE :? A@=:E:4D[ 8@G6C?>6?E 2?5 :?DE:EFE:@?D]k^Am
kAmu@C >2?J @3D6CG6CD H:E9:? 2?5 @FED:56 E96 &]$][ :>286D @7 E96 96=:4@AE6CD =:7E:?8 @77 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]9:DE@CJ]4@>^2CE:4=6D^72==\@7\D2:8@?\A9@E@\96=:4@AE6C\6G24F2E:@?\C@@7E@A\`hfdQm7=66:?8 7C@> $2:8@?k^2m – 2?5 E96C63J 56D6CE:?8 2==:6D 2?5 2 AFCA@CE65=J 6DD6?E:2= 42FD6 :? E96 AC@46DD – D:8?2=65 2 >@>6?E @7 p>6C:42? 2?5 (6DE6C? 564=:?6] %96 A96?@>6?@? 6G6? =65 E@ 2 H:56=J FD65 E6C> – “k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]3C@@<:?8D]65F^2CE:4=6D^:ED\42==65\E96\G:6E?2>\DJ?5C@>6\2?5\:ED\324<^Qm':6E?2> $J?5C@>6k^2m” – C676CC:?8 E@ E96 AF3=:4’D F?H:==:?8?6DD E96C627E6C E@ 4@>>:E E@ =2C86\D42=6 7@C6:8? :?E6CG6?E:@?D 2?5 ?2E:@?\3F:=5:?8 6I6C4:D6D]k^Am
k7:8FC6mk:>8 2=ElQp 96=:4@AE6C :D D66? 9@G6C:?8 @G6C 2 3F:=5:?8]Q DC4lQ9EEADi^^:>286D]E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^7:=6D^fed__b^@C:8:?2=^7:=6\a_ae`__g\e_\g?C88h];A8n:I=:3lC3\c]`]`U2>AjBlcdU2>Aj2FE@l7@C>2EU2>Aj7:El4=:AU2>AjHlfc_Q ^mk7:842AE:@?mp &]$] 96=:4@AE6C 6D4@CED p>6C:42?D 2?5 7@C6:8? ?2E:@?2=D 7C@> E96 E@A @7 2 $2:8@? 3F:=5:?8 :? `hfd] k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]86EEJ:>286D]4@>^56E2:=^?6HD\A9@E@^2:C\2>6C:42\96=:4@AE6C\4C6H>2?\96=AD\6G24F66D\FA\E96\=2556C\?6HD\A9@E@^d`dc_bfhcnA9C2D6lD2:8@?Ta_96=:4@AE6CU2>Aj25AA@AFAlECF6Qmq6EE>2??^v6EEJ x>286D G:2 %96 r@?G6CD2E:@?k^2mk^7:842AE:@?mk^7:8FC6m
k9amrC65:3:=:EJ FA E@ E96 AC6D6?Ek^9am
kAm%92E :>286 @7 &]$] 564=:?6 2?5 :>A@E6?46 :D @?6 E92E 92D C6D@?2E65 6G6C D:?46 :? 7@C6:8? A@=:4J 5632E6D]k^Am
kAm%96 A6C46AE:@? @7 E96 =@DD @7 4C65:3:=:EJ :? ':6E?2> 92D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]64@?@>:DE]4@>^:?E6C24E:G6^2D:2^a_ad^_c^ad^H:E9\2>6C:42?\4C65:3:=:EJ\:?\5@F3E\>:?5D\8@\324<\E@\D2:8@?\:?\`hfdQmD6CG65 2D 2 J2C5DE:4<k^2m 7@C A=2??:?8[ 2DD6DD:?8 2?5 :>A=6>6?E:?8 :?E6CG6?E:@?D :? @E96C C68:@?D] xE 92D 366? 3@E9 2 H2J @7 H2C?:?8 23@FE E96 52?86CD @7 C2D9 :?E6CG6?E:@?:D> 2?5 E96 4@?D6BF6?46D @7 9F3C:D[ 2D H6== 2D 2 C2==J:?8 4CJ E@ 2G@:5 C6A62E:?8 A2DE 6CC@CD] J6E >2:?E2:? 4C65:3:=:EJ E9C@F89 24E:@?D :? A=246D 7C@> E96 |:55=6 t2DE E@ {2E:? p>6C:42]k^Am
kAm%96 4C65:3:=:EJ :DDF6D 46?EC2= E@ E96 &]$] 25>:?:DEC2E:@?’D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^7@C6:8?A@=:4J]4@>^a_ae^_f^a`^ECF>A\6?5\:C2?\H2C\9:DE@CJ^Qm24E:@?D E@52J :? xC2?k^2m – 2?5 &<C2:?6[ '6?6KF6=2 2?5 6=D6H96C6 – 2C6 E9FD 23@FE E96 &]$]’D =:G:?8 FA E@ A=6586D 2?5 7@==@H:?8 E9C@F89 E@ 249:6G6 @3;64E:G6D] pD H:E9 ':6E?2>[ E96J 2=D@ 4@?46C? 4=FDE6C:?8 2C@F?5 ?63F=@FD 4@?46AED] @7 2?5 2:>D 23@FE k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H2D9:?8E@?A@DE]4@>^@A:?:@?D^a_ae^_b^_`^F?:E65\DE2E6D\DEC:<6D\2EE24<\:C2?\<92>6?6:^Qm?@E =@@<:?8 H62< >:=:E2C:=Jk^2m @C 5:A=@>2E:42==J]k^Am
kAmqFE E96 xC2? 6I2>A=6 – 2?5 A2CE:4F=2C=J E96 @?8@:?8 6A:D@5:4 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^F?4E25]@C8^AF3=:42E:@?^DEC2:E\9@C>FK\5:DCFAE:@?D\:>A=:42E:@?D\8=@32=\EC256\2?5\56G6=@A>6?EQm4=@DFC6D @7 E96 $EC2:E @7 w@C>FKk^2m – :D @?6 @7 E96 36DE :==FDEC2E:@?D E@52J @7 9@H >6C6=J :?G@<:?8 4C65:3:=:EJ E@ 24E :D ?@E E96 D2>6 2D 92G:?8 2? @G6C2== 6?582>6 DEC2E68J]k^Am
kAm(9:=6 D@>6 4@>>6?E2E@CD G:6H E9:D 4FCC6?E=J 2D 2 D:8? @7 2 =24< @7 C6D@=G6[ @C 4C65:3:=:EJ[ :7 H6 EFC? E@ xC2?:2? 24E:@?D 2?5 E@ E96 H@C5D @7 xC2?’D 24E:?8 s676?D6 |:?:DE6C |2;:5 t3?\6\#6K2 H6 7:?5 D@>6E9:?8 6=D6] }2>6=J[ %69C2? G:6HD 2== E9C62ED 7C@> E96 &?:E65 $E2E6D 2D “k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^26]=2AC6DD6]:E^H@C=5\26^a_ae^_g^_a^:C2?\5676?46\>:?:DE6C\H6\4@?D:56C\2==\E9C62ED\E@\36\C62=\2?5\4C65:3=6^QmC62= 2?5 4C65:3=6k^2m” 2?5 “2D 2 C62D@? E@ 3@=DE6C :ED 5676?D6]”k^Am
kAm%96 &]$] 2?5 xC2? 28C66 @? @?6 E9:?8 :? E6C>D @7 4C65:3:=:EJi p>6C:42 42? 4C65:3=J 36 C6=:65 @? E@ 42CCJ @FE @G6CH96=>:?8 G:@=6?46]k^Am
kAmqFE E96 AC@3=6>[ 2D :E H2D :? E96 ':6E?2> (2C[ :D E92E 4C65:3=J 6?828:?8 :? H2C 2?5 G:@=6?46 :D ?@E 2 DF3DE:EFE6 7@C DEC2E68J] rC65:3:=:EJ :D 27764E65 566A=J 3J DEC2E68:4 4F=EFC2= 2DD6DD>6?ED 23@FE DFA6C:@C:EJ 2?5 :?76C:@C:EJ[ 2?5 ?@E:@?D 23@FE H96?[ H96C6[ 9@H 2?5 7@C H9@> E96 4C65:3:=:EJ >2EE6CD]k^Am
kAm|@C6@G6C[ >6C6=J 6DE23=:D9:?8 4C65:3:=:EJ E@ 24E 42??@E ?646DD2C:=J @G6CH96=> 2 C6D@=FE6 25G6CD2CJ[ 2D 92D 366? 3@C?6 @FE :? xC2?] x? 724E[ :E 42? 2=D@ A6CA6EF2E6 ?6G6C\6?5:?8 4@?7=:4E E92E k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?JE:>6D]4@>^a_ae^`_^_f^FD^A@=:E:4D^ECF>A\:C2?\C6EC62E]9E>=QmD6CG6D E@ F?56C>:?6 E96 G6CJ AC6DE:86 2?5 H@C=5 A@H6Ck^2m E92E :E H2D DFAA@D65 E@ 6?92?46]k^Am
kAmk6>m%9:D 2CE:4=6 :D C6AF3=:D965 7C@> k2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^FDnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<\_U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQm%96 r@?G6CD2E:@?k^2m[ 2 ?@?AC@7:E[ :?56A6?56?E ?6HD @C82?:K2E:@? 3C:?8:?8 J@F 724ED 2?5 ECFDEH@CE9J 2?2=JD:D E@ 96=A J@F >2<6 D6?D6 @7 @FC 4@>A=6I H@C=5] xE H2D HC:EE6? 3Ji k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^AC@7:=6D^49C:DE@A96C\?:49@=D\`cb_acfnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?l3J=:?6\=:?<U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQmr9C:DE@A96C }:49@=Dk^2m[ k6>mk2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^:?DE:EFE:@?D^E96\@9:@\DE2E6\F?:G6CD:EJ\fdhnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?l3J=:?6\=:?<U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQm%96 ~9:@ $E2E6 &?:G6CD:EJk^2mk^6>m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^AC@7:=6D^<2G6C:\D2C<2C\adhchabnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?l3J=:?6\=:?<U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQmz2G6C: $2C<2Ck^2m[ k6>mk2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^:?DE:EFE:@?D^E96\@9:@\DE2E6\F?:G6CD:EJ\fdhnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?l3J=:?6\=:?<U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQm%96 ~9:@ $E2E6 &?:G6CD:EJk^2mk^6>mk^6>mk^Am
kAmkDEC@?8m#625 >@C6ik^DEC@?8mk^Am
kF=mk=:mk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^C68:>6\492?86\>62?D\5:776C6?E\E9:?8D\E@\5:776C6?E\A6@A=6\6:E96C\H2J\:E\92D?E\92AA6?65\:?\G6?6KF6=2\J6E\afaehfnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<_U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQm#68:>6 492?86 >62?D 5:776C6?E E9:?8D E@ 5:776C6?E A6@A=6] t:E96C H2J[ :E 92D?’E 92AA6?65 :? '6?6KF6=2 … J6Ek^2mk^=:mk=:mk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^FD\=6256CD\G:6H\49:?2\2D\2\A24:?8\E9C62E\92D\H2D9:?8E@?\6?@F89\DE2>:?2\E@\=2DE\E96\C246\aegcadnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<`U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQm&$ =6256CD G:6H r9:?2 2D 2 ‘A24:?8 E9C62E’ − 92D (2D9:?8E@? 6?@F89 DE2>:?2 E@ =2DE E96 C246nk^2mk^=:mk=:mk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^5:D:?7@C>2E:@?\2?5\@E96C\7@C>D\@7\D92CA\A@H6C\?@H\D:E\2=@?8D:56\E96\92C5\A@H6C\@7\E2?<D\2?5\D@7E\A@H6C\@7\:562D\:?\A@=:4J\92?53@@<\adcfeenFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<aU2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\agh_edQms:D:?7@C>2E:@? 2?5 @E96C 7@C>D @7 ‘D92CA A@H6C’ ?@H D:E 2=@?8D:56 E96 ‘92C5 A@H6C’ @7 E2?<D 2?5 ‘D@7E A@H6C’ @7 :562D :? A@=:4J 92?53@@<k^2mk^=:mk^F=m
kA 4=2DDlQ7:?6\AC:?EQmk6>mkDA2?m%96 2FE9@CD 5@ ?@E H@C< 7@C[ 4@?DF=E[ @H? D92C6D :? @C C646:G6 7F?5:?8 7C@> 2?J 4@>A2?J @C @C82?:K2E:@? E92E H@F=5 36?67:E 7C@> E9:D 2CE:4=6[ 2?5 92G6 5:D4=@D65 ?@ C6=6G2?E 277:=:2E:@?D 36J@?5 E96:C 24256>:4 2AA@:?E>6?E]k^DA2?mk^6>mk^Am
kAmk:>8 DC4lQ9EEADi^^4@F?E6C]E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^4@?E6?E^agh_ed^4@F?E]8:7n5:DEC:3FE@Cl=66Q DEJ=6lQ96:89Ei`AIjH:5E9i`AIjQ 2=ElQQ ^mk^Am