One of the major advances in modern political science is the preponderance of and accuracy of political polling. It is not an exact science, but it has gotten pretty close. If you see a poll done by a reputable polling firm you can bank on it in today’s surveying efficiency.

However, you need to remember two caveats. First, the poll will have a 3 to 5 percent margin of error. The more survey participants interviewed the lower the margin of error. The second caveat is that a poll is a picture or snapshot of the moment that the poll was taken. Therefore, it may be a week later when the election is held and people, believe it or not, do change their minds during a week’s time. The more adamant or ardent voters will not move, but most voters are not that locked in to a certain candidate and many do not decide until the day before. They truly are undecided or some ad or activity has caused them to move away from one candidate and on to another over the last week of the campaign.