By Karen Jennings and Kay Thomas
When the latest bull market for U.S. stocks reached the five-year mark on March 10, 2014, only five bulls had lasted longer. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index posted a gain of 177 percent for the five-year period.
kAm%96 4FCC6?E 3F== 7@==@H65 @? E96 966=D @7 E96 vC62E #646DD:@? 2?5 E96 H@CDE DE@4< >2C<6E 564=:?6 D:?46 E96 `hah DE@4< >2C<6E 4C2D9] %96 >@DE C646?E 362C >2C<6E 3682? :? ~4E] a__fj E96 $U2>Aj! d__ 76== df A6C46?E 367@C6 9:EE:?8 E96 3@EE@> @? |2C49 h[ a__h]k^Am
kAmx?G6DE@CD H9@ D@=5 DE@4<D 5FC:?8 E96 5@H?EFC? >2J ?@E 92G6 A2CE:4:A2E65 :? D@>6 @7 E96 DF3D6BF6?E 3F== >2C<6E 82:?D] p C646?E |@C?:?8DE2C DEF5J 7@F?5 E92E 6>@E:@?2= EC25:?8 AC24E:46D 925 2 ?682E:G6 67764E @? :?G6DE>6?E C6EFC?D @G6C E96 =2DE 564256] u@C E96 `_\J62C A6C:@5 6?5:?8 s64] b`[ a_`b[ :?G6DE@C 5@==2CD C6EFC?65 2? 2G6C286 @7 a]d A6C46?E286 A@:?ED A6C J62C =6DD E92? E96 2G6C286 >FEF2= 7F?5’D A6C7@C>2?46[ =2C86=J 3642FD6 A6@A=6 92G6 2 E6?56?4J E@ 3FJ 9:89 2?5 D6== =@H]k^Am
kAm{@@<:?8 q24<k^Am
kAmp 3F== >2C<6E :D @7E6? 567:?65 2D 2 A6C:@5 :? H9:49 2DD6E AC:46D C:D6 a_ A6C46?E @C >@C6 H:E9@FE 2 5C@A @7 a_ A6C46?E :? 36EH66?] p AC:46 564=:?6 @7 a_ A6C46?E :D 42==65 2 362C >2C<6E] |@DE @7 (2== $EC66E’D H@CDE 362C >2C<6ED 92G6 366? 42FD65 3J C646DD:@?D[ 3FE 9:DE@CJ D9@HD 6249 3F== 2?5 362C >2C<6E E@ 36 5:776C6?E]k^Am
kAm%96 =@?86DE 2?5 >@DE AC@7:E23=6 3F== >2C<6E 3682? :? =2E6 `hgf 2?5 =2DE65 F?E:= E96 E649 3F33=6 3FCDE :? a___[ A@DE:?8 2 dga A6C46?E 82:?]k^Am
kAmsFC:?8 @?6 C@F89 A6C:@5 7C@> =2E6 pAC:= E@ 62C=J ~4E@36C a_``[ E96 $U2>Aj! d__ =@DE `h]c A6C46?E 32D65 @? 4=@D:?8 AC:46Dj 9@H6G6C[ E96 :?56I 24EF2==J 5C@AA65 36=@H E96 a_ A6C46?E E9C6D9@=5 7@C 2 D9@CE E:>6 5FC:?8 E96 EC25:?8 52J @? ~4E@36C b]k^Am
kAm$@>6 A6@A=6 36=:6G6 E9:D C6DF=E65 :? 2 >@>6?E2CJ 362C 2?5 E96 368:??:?8 @7 2 ?6H 3F== >2C<6E] %96C6 92G6 366? 2 E@E2= @7 `a 3F== >2C<6ED D:?46 E96 6?5 @7 (@C=5 (2C xx W:?4=F5:?8 E96 4FCC6?E @?6X] w2=7 @7 E9@D6 =2DE65 7:G6 J62CD[ 2?5 @?=J E9C66 >256 :E E@ 2 D:IE9 J62C]k^Am
kAm#@@> E@ #F?nk^Am
kAm%96 E6C>D “3F==” 2?5 “362C” 2C6 2=D@ FD65 E@ 56D4C:36 E96 A@D:E:G6 @C ?682E:G6 @FE=@@< @7 :?5:G:5F2= :?G6DE@CD]k^Am
kAm$@>6 362C:D9 :?G6DE@CD 36=:6G6 46?EC2= 32?< A@=:4:6D 92G6 96=A65 DFDE2:? E96 3F== >2C<6E[ 2?5 E92E DE@4<D 4@F=5 DF776C 2D E96 u65 4FED 324< @? >@?6E2CJ DE:>F=FD] |@C6@G6C[ AC:46 :?4C62D6D 92G6 @FEA2465 62C?:?8D 8C@HE9[ >2<:?8 DE@4<D >@C6 6IA6?D:G6 C6=2E:G6 E@ 4@CA@C2E6 AC@7:ED] %96 $U2>Aj! d__ EC2565 2E 23@FE `e E:>6D 62C?:?8D @G6C E96 A2DE J62C[ H9:49 :D 23@FE EH:46 E96 =6G6= 7:G6 J62CD 28@]k^Am
kAm~? E96 A@D:E:G6 D:56 @7 E9:D A6CA6EF2= 2C8F>6?E[ 3F==D A@:?E @FE E92E E96 DE@4< >2C<6E 92D 366? C:D:?8 7C@> 86?6C2E:@?2= =@HD 2?5 4@F=5 4=:>3 7FCE96C :7 64@?@>:4 8C@HE9 A:4<D FA DA665]k^Am
kAm$E@4< AC:46D 86?6C2==J C67=64E 64@?@>:4 4@?5:E:@?D 2?5 E96 7:?2?4:2= A6C7@C>2?46 @7 :?5:G:5F2= 4@>A2?:6D]k^Am
kAm'@=2E:=:EJ #6DF>6Dk^Am
kAm%96 $U2>Aj! d__ A@DE65 2 ba A6C46?E E@E2= C6EFC? 7@C a_`b[ E96 =2C86DE :? `e J62CD]k^Am
kAmx? a_`c[ E96 DE@4< >2C<6E H2D 3F>A:6C] %96 $U2>Aj! d__ :?56I 6IA6C:6?465 `` >2C<6E DH:?8D @7 ` A6C46?E @C >@C6 E9C@F89 >:5\|2C49] qJ 2?5 =2C86[ E96D6 D6==\@77D 2?5 C6=:67 C2==:6D H6C6 :? C6DA@?D6 E@ ?6HD 23@FE >@?6E2CJ A@=:4J[ E96 &<C2:?:2? 4@?7=:4E 2?5 D:8?D @7 64@?@>:4 H62<?6DD :? r9:?2 2?5 @E96C 7C28:=6 64@?@>:6D]k^Am
kAmtG6? AC@76DD:@?2=D 92G6 2 5:77:4F=E E:>6 AC65:4E:?8 >2C<6E EFC?:?8 A@:?ED[ D@ :?G6DE@CD >2J 9:?56C E96>D6=G6D 3J 492?8:?8 4@FCD6 @? 4FCC6?E 6G6?ED @C C646?E A6C7@C>2?46]k^Am
kAm%9@F89 :E >2J 36 9F>2? ?2EFC6 E@ 36 H2CJ @7 DE@4<D 5FC:?8 2 362C >2C<6E[ 2 =@?8 3F== >2C<6E >:89E E6>AE :?G6DE@CD E@ :?G6DE E@@ 288C6DD:G6=J] u@C E9:D C62D@?[ J@F >:89E H2?E E@ A2J =6DD 2EE6?E:@? E@ E96 >2C<6E’D FAD 2?5 5@H?D 2?5 DE:4< H:E9 2 =@?8\E6C> DEC2E68J 32D65 @? J@FC E:>6 9@C:K@?[ C:D< E@=6C2?46 2?5 7:?2?4:2= 8@2=D]k^Am
kAm%96 C6EFC? 2?5 AC:?4:A2= G2=F6 @7 DE@4<D 7=F4EF2E6 H:E9 492?86D :? >2C<6E 4@?5:E:@?D] $92C6D[ H96? D@=5[ >2J 36 H@CE9 >@C6 @C =6DD E92? E96:C @C:8:?2= 4@DE] %96 $U2>Aj! d__ :D 2? F?>2?2865 8C@FA @7 D64FC:E:6D E92E :D 4@?D:56C65 C6AC6D6?E2E:G6 @7 E96 &]$] DE@4< >2C<6E :? 86?6C2=] %96 A6C7@C>2?46 @7 2? F?>2?2865 :?56I :D ?@E :?5:42E:G6 @7 E96 A6C7@C>2?46 @7 2?J DA64:7:4 :?G6DE>6?E] x?5:G:5F2=D 42??@E :?G6DE 5:C64E=J :? 2? :?56I] !2DE A6C7@C>2?46 :D ?@ 8F2C2?E66 @7 7FEFC6 C6DF=EDj 24EF2= C6DF=ED H:== G2CJ]k^Am
kAmk6>mO r@?E24E z2C6? y6??:?8D 2?5 z2J %9@>2D 2E %9@>2D |@CE8286 :? p=6I2?56C r:EJ 2E ade\bah\___b]k^6>mk^Am