(WASHINGTON, D.C.) The crucial test for preelection polls is whether they broadly indicate how voters are likely to decide. By that fundamental measure, the 2026 midterm polls largely succeeded in anticipating outcomes on Election Day.
If somewhat tentatively, the polls overall had been signaling important gains for Democrats. And that is what voting produced.
kAmxE H2D[ A6C92AD[ A@==:?8’D >@DE C62DDFC:?8 A6C7@C>2?46 D:?46 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^AC6D:56?E^86?6C2=^a__g^>442:?\GD\@32>2Qm244FC2E6=J 2?E:4:A2E:?8 q2C24< ~32>2’D AC6D:56?E:2= 6=64E:@?k^2m :? a__g[ 2? @FE4@>6 4:E65 :? >J 3@@<[ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]F4AC6DD]65F^3@@<D^=@DE\:?\2\82==FA^A2A6CQm“{@DE :? 2 v2==FAi !@==:?8 u2:=FC6 :? &]$] !C6D:56?E:2= t=64E:@?D]”k^2mk^Am
k9am%H@ ECF:D>D 4@?7:C>65k^9am
kAm%9:D :D ?@E E@ D2J E96 a_ae AC66=64E:@? A@==D @776C65 AC64:D:@? 6DE:>2E6D 367@C6 C6EFC?D A@FC65 :?] %96J 2AA62C E@ 92G6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]7@I?6HD]4@>^A@=:E:4D^2>6C:42\D2H\3=F6\H2G6\4@>:?8\5C2DE:42==J\F?56C6DE:>2E65\6IE6?E\56>\EDF?2>:QmF?56C6DE:>2E65 DFAA@CE 7@C s6>@4C2E:4 42?5:52E6Dk^2m :? D@>6 $6?2E6 C246D]k^Am
kAmqFE DA@E\@? AC64:D:@?[ H9:=6 6?G:23=6[ :D ?@E H92E A@==D 42? 36 6IA64E65 E@ AC@5F46[ 4@?D:56C:?8 E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^5@:]@C8^`_]`_g_^abb_ccb)]a_a`]`hf``aeQm>2?J H2JD 6CC@C 42? :?7:=EC2E6k^2m @A:?:@? DFCG6JD] v:G6? E96:C k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^?@\4966CJ\E:>6\7@C\6=64E:@?\A@==DE6CD\:?\CF?\FA\E@\FD\>:5E6C>D\aghffaQm4964<6C65 C64@C5 :? C646?E ?2E:@?2= 6=64E:@?Dk^2m[ A@==DE6CD 2?5 >65:2 2?2=JDED E6?565 E@ 4@F49 E96:C 6?5\@7\42>A2:8? 2DD6DD>6?ED :? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]E962E=2?E:4]4@>^A@=:E:4D^a_ae^`_^>:5E6C>\A@==D\6CC@C^egghaa^Qm>62DFC65 E6?E2E:G6?6DDk^2m]k^Am
kAmu@C 6I2>A=6[ }2E6 r@9?[ 49:67 A@=:E:42= 2?2=JDE 7@C %96 }6H *@C< %:>6D[ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?JE:>6D]4@>^a_ae^``^_`^FAD9@E^A@==\E:>6D\D:6?2\D6?2E6\>:5E6C>D]9E>=QmHC@E6 ;FDE 367@C6 E96 6=64E:@?k^2m E92E “:E’D C62D@?23=6 E@ H@?56C H96E96C E96 A@==D >:89E 36 @G6C6DE:>2E:?8 s6>@4C2E:4 DEC6?8E9 J6E 282:?] %9:D :D 2 C62= A@DD:3:=:EJ] !C6D:56?E %CF>A’D DFAA@CE6CD 2C6 C6=2E:G6=J F?=:<6=J E@ C6DA@?5 E@ A@==D[ H9:49 :?EC@5F46D E96 6G6C\AC6D6?E C:D< @7 2 A@==:?8 >:D7:C6]”k^Am
kAm%92E C:D< H2D >@DE=J F?C62=:K65[ 2D #6AF3=:42? 42?5:52E6D H6C6 DH6AE :? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?JE:>6D]4@>^a_ae^``^_c^FD^A@=:E:4D^56>@4C2E:4\>:5E6C>D\H:A6@FE]9E>=nF?=@4<6502CE:4=604@56l`]}`t]:2_(]!!:z'';2;(B>U2>AjD>:5lFC=Qm2 C65 H:A6@FEk^2m]k^Am
kAm%96 a_ae A@==D E6?565 E@ 4@?7:C> E96 ECF:D> :? p>6C:42? A@=:E:4D E92E >:5E6C>D EJA:42==J 2C6 C@F89 @? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^DA:2]F82]65F^6IA6CE\G@:46D^H9J\5@6D\E96\AC6D:56?ED\A2CEJ\FDF2==J\=@D6\D62ED\:?\>:5E6C>\6=64E:@?D^Qm42?5:52E6D @7 E96 A2CEJ E92E 9@=5D E96 AC6D:56?4Jk^2m]k^Am
kAmp?@E96C ECF:D>[ 282:? C6277:C>65[ :D E92E 2 AC6D:56?E’D 2AAC@G2= C2E:?8D @7E6? 2C6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HD;]4@>^=:G64@G6C286^>:5E6C>\6=64E:@?\?6HD\a_ae^42C5^H9J\2\AC6D:56?E\D\;@3\2AAC@G2=\C2E:?8\>2EE6CD\{_:':>I7y*332*>urqh~QmFD67F= :? 82F8:?8k^2m E96 4@F?ECJ’D >@@5 367@C6 >:5E6C> 6=64E:@?D] !C6D:56?E s@?2=5 %CF>A’D AC66=64E:@? 2AAC@G2= C2E:?8D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^2AAC@G2=^5@?2=5\ECF>A^2AAC@G2=\C2E:?8Qm9@G6C65 2E @C 36=@H c_Tk^2m[ 244@C5:?8 E@ DFCG6J 52E2 4@>A:=65 3J #62=r=62C!@=:E:4D]k^Am
k7:8FC6mk:>8 2=ElQ$6G6C2= A6@A=6 9F?49 @G6C G@E:?8 3@@E9D :?D:56 2 92==]Q DC4lQ9EEADi^^:>286D]E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^7:=6D^ff_`ac^@C:8:?2=^7:=6\a_ae``_c\ec\<>Dha>];A8n:I=:3lC3\c]`]`U2>AjBlcdU2>Aj2FE@l7@C>2EU2>Aj7:El4=:AU2>AjHlfc_Q ^mk7:842AE:@?m'@E6CD 42DE E96:C 32==@ED 2E E96 qC:586 @7 w@A6 r9FC49 :? *@F?8DE@H?[ ~9:@[ @? }@G] b[ a_ae] k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]86EEJ:>286D]4@>^56E2:=^?6HD\A9@E@^G@E6CD\42DE\E96:C\32==@ED\:?D:56\2\A@==:?8\=@42E:@?\2E\E96\?6HD\A9@E@^ab_agfgdcdnA9C2D6lt=64E:@?Ta_A@==DU2>Aj25AA@AFAlECF6Qmy677 $H6?D6?^v6EEJ x>286D G:2 %96 r@?G6CD2E:@?k^2mk^7:842AE:@?mk^7:8FC6m
kAm%96 &]$] H2C H:E9 xC2?[ =2F?4965 3J %CF>A[ H2D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]HD;]4@>^A@=:E:4D^6=64E:@?D^ECF>A\24<?@H=6586D\:C2?\H2C\:D\A2CE=J\E@\3=2>6\7@C\C6AF3=:42?\=@DD6D\4b47dfa6Qm2 >2;@C 724E@C AC@A6==:?8 E96 F?6?G:23=6 C2E:?8Dk^2m] %96 4@?7=:4E H6?E F?C6D@=G65 H9:=6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?34?6HD]4@>^52E2\8C2A9:4D^82D\AC:46D\:C2?\H2C\DE2E6\?2E:@?2=\4@DE\ECF>A\C4?2aedgbdQm7F6= AC:46D DFC865k^2m[ 3C:?8:?8 A2:? E@ 4@?DF>6CD]k^Am
kAm%9@D6 2?5 @E96C AC@3=6>D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?2E6D:=G6C]?6E^A^:ED\;F58>6?E\52J\7@C\ECF>A\2?5\7@CQmAC@>AE65 A@==:?8 2?2=JDE }2E6 $:=G6Ck^2m E@ HC:E6 E92E %CF>A “2=>@DE D66>D E@ 92G6 2 562E9 H:D9 :? E96D6 >:5E6C>D] p?5 E96 @?6 DFA6CA@H6C 96 92D – EFC?:?8 @FE =@H\AC@A6?D:EJ G@E6CD :? AC6D:56?E:2= J62CD[ E96 D@CED @7 G@E6CD H9@ 2AA2C6?E=J 2C6 @7E6? >:DD65 3J A@==DE6CD – 92D ?6G6C C62==J H@C<65 H96? %CF>A 9:>D6=7 H2D?’E @? E96 32==@E]”k^Am
kAmp?5 :E 5:5?’E H@C< E9:D E:>6[ 6:E96C[ 6G6? E9@F89 E9C@F89@FE E96 42>A2:8? %CF>A 6?4@FC2865 DFAA@CE6CD E@ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E969:==]4@>^9@>6?6HD^25>:?:DEC2E:@?^e_ddbef\ECF>A\>:5E6C>\C6AF3=:42?\G@E6CD\AC6E6?5\32==@E^QmAC6E6?5 9:D ?2>6 H2D @? E96 32==@Ek^2m 2?5 EFC? @FE E@ G@E6]k^Am
k9amu6H A@==:?8 >:DD6Dk^9am
kAm(96? 6I2>:?65 4=@D6=J[ E96 A@==D 56=:G6C65 D@>6 5:D28C66>6?E :? E96 52JD 367@C6 E96 6=64E:@?] !@==DE6CD @776C65 C2?86D E92E[ :? D@>6 C246D[ H6C6 D:K23=6]k^Am
kAmu@C 6I2>A=6[ H2D #6AF3=:42? $6?2E6 42?5:52E6 z6? !2IE@? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^D6?2E6^86?6C2=^a_ae^E6I2D^E2=2C:4@\GD\A2IE@?n42C5l`dh``bU2>AjEl`fhbfhbfba_efQmFA 3J ` A6C46?E286 A@:?Ek^2m :? %6I2D =2E6 :? E96 42>A2:8?[ @C H2D 96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^D6?2E6^86?6C2=^a_ae^E6I2D^E2=2C:4@\GD\A2IE@?n42C5l`dhacfU2>AjEl`fhbfhbfefbacQm5@H? f A@:?EDk^2mn !2IE@? =@DE 3J 5@F3=6 5:8:ED E@ s6>@4C2E y2>6D %2=2C:4@[ 2 >2C8:? E92E ?@ A@==DE6C 2?E:4:A2E65]k^Am
kAm$:>:=2C=J[ H2D =@?8\D6CG:?8 #6AF3=:42? $6?] $FD2? r@==:?D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^D6?2E6^86?6C2=^a_ae^4@==:?D\GD\;24<D@?n42C5l`dhbcfU2>AjEl`fhbfhc_he`fdQm29625 3J a A@:?EDk^2m :? |2:?6 @C H2D D96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^D6?2E6^86?6C2=^a_ae^4@==:?D\GD\;24<D@?n42C5l`dhbfhU2>AjEl`fhbfhc`abgf`Qm=@D:?8 3J h A@:?EDk^2mn %96 @FE4@>6 H2D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@=:E:4D]4@>^6=64E:@?D^=:G60C6DF=ED^a_ae^DE2E6^>6^D6?2E6^Qm4=@D6C E@ E96 =2EE6C C625:?8k^2m[ H:E9 s6>@4C2E %C@J y24<D@? H:??:?8 3J >@C6 E92? D:I A@:?ED]k^Am
kAmx? |:??6D@E2[ H2D s6>@4C2E:4 $6?2E6 42?5:52E6 !688J u=2?282? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^D6?2E6^86?6C2=^a_ae^>:??6D@E2^E27@J2\GD\7=2?282?n42C5l`dghc_U2>AjEl`fhbfhcb`e__bQmFA 3J `c A@:?EDk^2m[ @C 3J k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^D6?2E6^86?6C2=^a_ae^>:??6D@E2^E27@J2\GD\7=2?282?n42C5l`dhbedU2>AjEl`fhbfhcbdfgb_Qm;FDE a A@:?EDk^2mn (:E9 >@DE G@E6D 4@F?E65 3J E96 52J 27E6C E96 6=64E:@?[ u=2?282?’D >2C8:? @7 G:4E@CJ H2D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@=:E:4D]4@>^6=64E:@?D^=:G60C6DF=ED^a_ae^DE2E6^>?^D6?2E6^Qm23@FE `_ A@:?EDk^2m]k^Am
kAm$F49 A@==:?8 82AD :? 9:89\AC@7:=6 C246D @776C 2 C6>:?56C E@ ?@E 7@4FD @? 2?J D:?8=6 DFCG6J 3FE[ :?DE625[ E@ 4@?D:56C @G6C2== A@==:?8 2G6C286D[ H9:49 E6?5 E@ C6>@G6 @C C65F46 E96 67764ED @7 @FE=:6CD]k^Am
kAm}@?6 @7 E9:D ?646DD2C:=J :D E@ 564=2C6 E92E A@==DE6CD 92G6 C6D@=G65 E96:C A6CD:DE6?E k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^22A@C]@C8^A@==:?8\244FC24J^QmAC@3=6>D :? D2>A=:?8k^2m[ 6DA64:2==J :? :?E6CG:6H:?8 92C5\E@\C6249 G@E6CD] qFE 3:8 A@==:?8 >:DD6D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]C62=4=62CA@==:?8]4@>^A@==D^8@G6C?@C^86?6C2=^a_ae^E6I2D^233@EE\GD\9:?@;@D2Qm=:<6 E92E :? E96 %6I2D 8@G6C?@C’D C246k^2m – H96C6 s6>@4C2E v:?2 w:?@;@D2 H@? 3J 5@F3=6 5:8:ED[ 2=E9@F89 A@==D 925 D9@H? #6AF3=:42? v@G] vC68 p33@EE 29625 3J 2 76H A@:?ED – H6C6 76H E9:D 6=64E:@? 4J4=6]k^Am
kAm|62?H9:=6[ E96 6=64E@C2E6’D 3C@25 :?4=:?2E:@?D H6C6 A=2:?=J :7 ?@E AC64:D6=J 56A:4E65]k^Am
kAm%92E @FE4@>6 92D E@ 36 962CE6?:?8 7@C A@==DE6CD[ 2? @7E6?\k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E969:==]4@>^@A:?:@?^42>A2:8?^ddgegg_\a_ac\6=64E:@?\A@==:?8\244FC24J^Qm36=628F6C65k^2m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]A@=:E:4@]4@>^?6HD^a_ae^`_^b_^A@==\2>6C:42?D\5@?E\ECFDE\A@==D\_``c```dQm>F49\4C:E:4:K65k^2m 4@9@CE]k^Am
kAmk6>m%9:D 2CE:4=6 :D C6AF3=:D965 7C@> k2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^FDnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<\_U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\ahdcbbQm%96 r@?G6CD2E:@?k^2m[ 2 ?@?AC@7:E[ :?56A6?56?E ?6HD @C82?:K2E:@? 3C:?8:?8 J@F 724ED 2?5 ECFDEH@CE9J 2?2=JD:D E@ 96=A J@F >2<6 D6?D6 @7 @FC 4@>A=6I H@C=5] xE H2D HC:EE6? 3Ji kDA2?mk2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^AC@7:=6D^H\;@D6A9\42>A36==\``dcgfhnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?l3J=:?6\=:?<U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\ahdcbbQm( y@D6A9 r2>A36==k^2m[ k6>mk2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^:?DE:EFE:@?D^2>6C:42?\F?:G6CD:EJ\D49@@=\@7\4@>>F?:42E:@?\aggdnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?l3J=:?6\=:?<U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\ahdcbbQmp>6C:42? &?:G6CD:EJ $49@@= @7 r@>>F?:42E:@?k^2mk^6>mk^DA2?mk^6>mk^Am
kAmkDEC@?8m#625 >@C6ik^DEC@?8mk^Am
kF=mk=:mk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^;FDE:46\56A2CE>6?ED\:?E6C76C6?46\367@C6\>:5E6C>D\H2D\F?DF446DD7F=\F?AC@76DD:@?2=\2?5\F?AC64656?E65\ahdeaanFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<_U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\ahdcbbQmyFDE:46 s6A2CE>6?E’D :?E6C76C6?46 367@C6 >:5E6C>D H2D F?DF446DD7F=[ F?AC@76DD:@?2= 2?5 F?AC64656?E65k^2mk^=:mk=:mk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^6A:4\3=F6\H2G6\96=AD\56>@4C2ED\E2<6\4@?8C6DD\:?\@G6CH96=>:?8\C63F<6\E@\AC6D:56?E\ECF>A\ahdgb_nFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<`U2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\ahdcbbQm‘tA:4’ 3=F6 H2G6 96=AD s6>@4C2ED E2<6 r@?8C6DD :? @G6CH96=>:?8 C63F<6 E@ !C6D:56?E %CF>Ak^2mk^=:mk=:mk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^56>@4C2ED\:?\9@FD6\A@:D65\E@\:?G6DE:82E6\E96\ECF>A\25>:?:DEC2E:@?\E2<:?8\FA\2\=@?8\DE2?5:?8\A@H6C\8@A\=65\4@?8C6DD\:8?@C65\7@C\E96\A2DE\EH@\J62CD\ahdbefnFE>0D@FC46l{66U2>AjFE>0>65:F>lC6=2E65\=:?<U2>AjFE>042>A2:8?lC6=2E65\=:?<aU2>AjFE>04@?E6?El2CE:4=6\ahdcbbQms6>@4C2ED :? w@FD6 A@:D65 E@ :?G6DE:82E6 E96 %CF>A p5>:?:DEC2E:@?[ E2<:?8 FA 2 =@?8‑DE2?5:?8 A@H6C v~!‑=65 r@?8C6DD :8?@C65 7@C E96 A2DE EH@ J62CDk^2mk^=:mk^F=m
kA 4=2DDlQ7:?6\AC:?EQmk6>mkDA2?m( y@D6A9 r2>A36== 5@6D ?@E H@C< 7@C[ 4@?DF=E[ @H? D92C6D :? @C C646:G6 7F?5:?8 7C@> 2?J 4@>A2?J @C @C82?:K2E:@? E92E H@F=5 36?67:E 7C@> E9:D 2CE:4=6[ 2?5 92D 5:D4=@D65 ?@ C6=6G2?E 277:=:2E:@?D 36J@?5 E96:C 24256>:4 2AA@:?E>6?E]k^DA2?mk^6>mk^Am
kAmk:>8 DC4lQ9EEADi^^4@F?E6C]E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^4@?E6?E^ahdcbb^4@F?E]8:7n5:DEC:3FE@Cl=66Q DEJ=6lQ96:89Ei`AIjH:5E9i`AIjQ 2=ElQQ ^mk^Am
