OPINION: Are we in a recession or aren't we?
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 File / The Outlook

The Bureau of Economic Analysis, or BEA, reported a month ago that the U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter that ended June 30 – a widely accepted rule of thumb for what typically constitutes a recession. According to the BEA's advance estimate, Gross Domestic Product fell at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent for the second quarter—which has since been revised downward to a decline of only 0.6 percent following a 1.6 percent decline in GDP reported for the first quarter of 2022.

A debate rages on among economic experts as to whether these particular two consecutive quarters of declining GDP indeed signal a recession or if contrary economic data—such as record low unemployment and high inflation, among other factors—make this decades-long indicator less valid than it has been in the past. 

Dr. James Barth
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James R. Barth is the Lowder Eminent Scholar in Finance at Auburn University's Harbert College of Business, a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute and a Fellow at the Wharton Financial Institution Center.